The Freight Rate of The US-West Route Fell by More Than 20% in 30 Days to 1632 US Dollars / FEU! The Number of Suspended Voyages on Trans-Pacific Routes Has Increased Significantly
Nov 17, 2022
Affected by sluggish economic prospects, serious inflation and other factors, the market consumption and transportation demand are sluggish, and the freight rates of main routes continue to decline.
According to the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of November 11, the index was 1443.29 points, a drop of 8.6% from a week ago and a drop of 20.5% from a month ago.
Among them, the freight rates (sea freight and sea freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai Port to the basic port markets of West America and East America were US$1,632/FEU and US$4,223/FEU, respectively, down 2.9% and 13.6% from a week ago, and compared with a month ago. They fell 22.2% and 27.4%, respectively.
Trend of Shanghai Export Container Composite Freight Index
Analysts at the Shanghai Shipping Exchange said that as the Fed continues to adopt tightening policies to control inflation, the performance of the US economy has continued to decline recently, and the future growth prospects are facing a severe situation. The cargo volume of the trans-Pacific route continued to be weak, the fundamentals of supply and demand were not good, and the market freight rate continued to decline.
The recent economic situation in Europe is also not optimistic, and a number of manufacturing data are below the line of prosperity and contraction. At the same time, due to the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine, energy prices are high, inflation remains high, and the economic outlook is not optimistic.
On November 11, the freight rate (sea freight and sea freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai Port to the European basic port market was US$1,478/TEU, a decrease of 16.2% from a week ago. The freight rate (sea freight and sea freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai Port to the Mediterranean basic port market is US$2,061/TEU, a decrease of 7.2% from a week ago.
In order to balance the relationship between supply and demand, liner companies have also continued to increase the suspension of major routes.
According to the latest data released by Sea-Intelligence, a well-known consulting agency in the industry, among the suspension measures announced by liner companies in the past two weeks from the 42nd week to the 52nd week of this year, the number of suspended voyages on trans-Pacific routes has increased significantly.
The data shows that 34 blank voyages have been added from Asia to the west coast of North America, and 16 blank voyages have been added from Asia to the east coast of North America.
Additional blank voyages on major routes from the 42nd week to the 52nd week of this year
It is worth noting that during the 42nd week to the 52nd week of this year, in the voyage suspension plan from Asia to the west coast of North America, the liner company added 7-11 blank voyages in each of the 5 weeks, but in the 51st and 52nd week Weekly, the liner company did not add blank voyages.
Alab Murphy, CEO of Sea Intelligence, analyzed that: This reflects that liner companies are still hesitant to deal with the peak shipping season that may occur before the Lunar New Year. It is not yet possible to judge whether there will be a seasonal demand peak, and most liner companies hold a wait-and-see attitude.
On the other hand, in the Asia-Europe market, the number of suspended voyages has not increased significantly. Only 6 blank voyages were added for the Asia-North Europe route, and 4 blank voyages were added for the Asia-Mediterranean route.
However, Sea Intelligence previously analyzed that although the suspended shipping capacity accounted for a higher proportion of the total market capacity than in 2019, due to the large base of the current capacity, even if the capacity of the trans-Pacific route is reduced by 26%-31%, the Asia-Europe route will be reduced by 19%. -27% capacity, the overall market capacity is still high, and excess capacity will still have an impact on the market.
Some analysts believe that the adjustment of transport capacity in the trans-Pacific market is still too small and too slow. From now on, liner companies need to follow a "very delicate" capacity balancing strategy.